Statistics of Price Movements of Aspen Technology (AZPN)

The price movements of Aspen Technology (ticker AZPN) are summarized in five ways:

• Table 1. Statistics of daily price changes using the closing prices
• Table 2. Statistics of daily price changes using the closing and opening prices
• Table 3 – 7. Statistics of daily price changes when AZPN opened with an increase of 1%, 2%, 3%, 4%, or more than 5%
• Table 8 – 10. Statistics of stock price changes in the 20 days after AZPN had a big price move
• Table 11. Statistics of daily price changes in the 20 days after AZPN moved 5% with twice the 30-day average volume

The statistics are calculated using AZPN's price data across 1,547 trading days from 2015 to 2020.

Table 1. Statistics of AZPN one-day price changes

In this table, the one-day price change is calculated using the closing price and the previous day's closing price.

In the past 1,547 trading days, 52.7% of the time (814 days), AZPN closed above the previous day's closing price. 43.5% of the time (672 days), it closed below the previous day's closing price. 3.9% of the time (60 days), it did not change.

Also see: VIX price movement study.

AZPN Price Change (%)	Number of Days	% of Total Sessions
29 – 30%	1	0.06%
13 – 14%	1	0.06%
11 – 12%	1	0.06%
10 – 11%	1	0.06%
8 – 9%	2	0.13%
7 – 8%	1	0.06%
6 – 7%	5	0.32%
5 – 6%	9	0.58%
4 – 5%	11	0.71%
3 – 4%	30	1.94%
2 – 3%	82	5.30%
1 – 2%	237	15.33%
0 – 1%	433	28.01%
0%	60	3.88%
0 – -1%	355	22.96%
-1 – -2%	174	11.25%
-2 – -3%	73	4.72%
-3 – -4%	35	2.26%
-4 – -5%	10	0.65%
-5 – -6%	11	0.71%
-6 – -7%	5	0.32%
-7 – -8%	2	0.13%
-8 – -9%	3	0.19%
-10 – -11%	1	0.06%
-11 – -12%	2	0.13%
-12 – -13%	1	0.06%

Table 2. Statistics of AZPN: Closing vs. Open

In this table, instead of using the closing price of the previous day, the opening price is used to calculate the one-day price change of AZPN.

52.0% of the time (804 days), AZPN closed above the opening price. 44.1% of the time (682 days), it closed below the opening price. 3.9% of the time (61 days), it closed where it started.

Closing - Open (%)	Number of Days	% of Total Sessions
9 – 10%	1	0.06%
7 – 8%	1	0.06%
6 – 7%	3	0.19%
5 – 6%	3	0.19%
4 – 5%	14	0.90%
3 – 4%	22	1.42%
2 – 3%	71	4.59%
1 – 2%	226	14.61%
0 – 1%	463	29.93%
0%	61	3.94%
0 – -1%	382	24.69%
-1 – -2%	184	11.89%
-2 – -3%	68	4.40%
-3 – -4%	21	1.36%
-4 – -5%	15	0.97%
-5 – -6%	6	0.39%
-6 – -7%	2	0.13%
-7 – -8%	1	0.06%
-8 – -9%	1	0.06%
-11 – -12%	1	0.06%
-12 – -13%	1	0.06%

Table 3. One-day performance when AZPN opened 5% higher than previous close

In the past 1,547 trading days, AZPN opened more than 5% higher than the previous day's closing price 8 times. Of these days, 62.5% (5 days) had closing prices above the opening price, and 37.5% (3 days) had closing prices below the opening price.

Closing - Open (%)	Number of Days	% of Total Sessions
2 – 3%	1	12.50%
1 – 2%	3	37.50%
0 – 1%	1	12.50%
0 – -1%	2	25.00%
-7 – -8%	1	12.50%

Table 4. Closing vs. open when AZPN opened 4–5% higher

On 3 days, AZPN opened 4–5% higher than the previous day's closing price. Of these days, 66.7% (2 days) had closing prices above the opening price, and 33.3% (1 days) had closing prices below the opening price.

Closing - Open (%)	Number of Days	% of Total Sessions
3 – 4%	1	33.33%
0 – 1%	1	33.33%
-1 – -2%	1	33.33%

Table 5. Closing vs. open when AZPN open 3 – 4% higher

7 times AZPN opened 3 – 4% higher than the previous day's closing price. Among these days, 28.6% (2 days) closed above the opening price, 71.4% (5 days) closed below the opening price.

Closing - Open (%)	Number of Days	% of Total Sessions
2 – 3%	2	28.57%
-1 – -2%	2	28.57%
-4 – -5%	1	14.29%
-5 – -6%	1	14.29%
-11 – -12%	1	14.29%

Table 6. Closing vs. open when AZPN open 2 – 3% higher

21 times AZPN opened 2 – 3% higher than the previous day's closing price. Among these days, 33.3% (7 days) closed above the opening price, 66.7% (14 days) closed below the opening price.

Closing - Open (%)	Number of Days	% of Total Sessions
2 – 3%	3	14.29%
1 – 2%	1	4.76%
0 – 1%	3	14.29%
0 – -1%	6	28.57%
-1 – -2%	4	19.05%
-2 – -3%	2	9.52%
-3 – -4%	1	4.76%
-4 – -5%	1	4.76%

Table 7. Closing vs. open when AZPN open 1 – 2% higher

81 times AZPN opened 1 – 2% higher than the previous day's closing price. Among these days, 55.6% (45 days) closed above the opening price, 43.2% (35 days) closed below the opening price.

Closing - Open (%)	Number of Days	% of Total Sessions
4 – 5%	1	1.23%
3 – 4%	2	2.47%
2 – 3%	5	6.17%
1 – 2%	14	17.28%
0 – 1%	23	28.40%
0%	1	1.23%
0 – -1%	20	24.69%
-1 – -2%	6	7.41%
-2 – -3%	5	6.17%
-3 – -4%	1	1.23%
-4 – -5%	1	1.23%
-8 – -9%	1	1.23%
-12 – -13%	1	1.23%

Table 8. Periods when AZPN moved 15% or more

In this table, we track the price movements in the 20 days after AZPN had a one-day price change of at least 15%.

Date	Price Change	Price Change after 15% Move
Days after:		1	4	7	10	13	16	19
20200813	29%	-5.7	-2.8	-.6	.6	3.7	1.5	-1.5

Table 9. Periods when AZPN moved 10% or more

In this table, we track the price movements in the 20 days after AZPN had a one-day price change of at least 10%.

Date	Price Change	Price Change after 10% Move
Days after:		1	4	7	10	13	16	19
20200813	29%	-5.7	-2.8	-.6	.6	3.7	1.5	-1.5
20190124	13%	-2.0	-4.9	-2.7	-3.2	-1.4	-.8	-1.0
20190808	11.7%	-1.9	-5.8	-3.8	-2.5	-4.0	-4.7	-4.7
20150129	10.5%	-3.1	2.8	3.5	3.1	6.4	7.1	7.9
20150814	-10.1%	4.2	1.8	-3.5	.4	-.4	1.1	4.3
20200320	-11%	3.0	28.5	24.5	16.3	24.2	26.7	27.6
20200309	-11.9%	5.3	5.9	-2.0	-13.3	8.1	4.7	-2.2
20200130	-12.8%	-2.7	3.0	6.2	3.6	4.0	.8	-7.2

Table 9a. AZPN average price changes following a 10% up day

Of the 1,547 trading days from 2015 to 2020, there were 4 days in which AZPN was up more than 10%. This table shows the average price changes over the 4 days.

Average Type	Average Price Change
Days after:	1	4	7	10	13	16	19
Avg for Change ≥ 10%	-3.2	-2.7	-.9	-.5	1.2	.8	.2

Table 9b. AZPN average price changes following a 10% down day

Of the 1,547 trading days from 2015 to 2020, there were 4 days in which AZPN was down more than -10%. This table shows the average price changes over the 4 days.

Average Type	Average Price Change
Days after:	1	4	7	10	13	16	19
Avg for Change ≥ -10%	2.4	9.8	6.3	1.7	9.0	8.3	5.6

Table 10. Periods when AZPN moved 5% or more

In this table, we track the price movements in the 20 days after AZPN had a one-day price change of at least 5%.

Date	Price Change	Price Change after 5% Move
Days after:		1	4	7	10	13	16	19
20200813	29%	-5.7	-2.8	-.6	.6	3.7	1.5	-1.5
20190124	13%	-2.0	-4.9	-2.7	-3.2	-1.4	-.8	-1.0
20190808	11.7%	-1.9	-5.8	-3.8	-2.5	-4.0	-4.7	-4.7
20150129	10.5%	-3.1	2.8	3.5	3.1	6.4	7.1	7.9
20200324	8.9%	6.1	14.3	4.3	7.3	13.5	12.6	13.6
20200313	8.6%	-8.0	-10.7	-10.8	-1.1	-7.1	-2.8	1.2
20200326	7.8%	-3.1	-9.0	-4.8	-.9	2.0	2.3	-2.2
20181128	6.9%	.2	-1.0	-4.5	.6	-6.7	-7.6	-12.2
20180426	6.4%	-1.4	-4.0	-.5	3.5	1.4	3.2	4.5
20150429	6.3%	.5	-2.1	-5.2	-4.6	.8	-.1	-2.3
20200429	6.3%	-.4	-.3	-2.1	-8.9	-8.4	-8.1	-5.1
20200325	6.1%	7.9	4.5	-2.4	4.3	6.3	7.1	1.1
20160812	5.9%	.2	-.1	-.2	-.9	-.1	.9	2.2
20201109	5.9%	1.6	2.6	9.2	12.9	14.7	13.7	15.3
20180104	5.8%	1.1	4.0	7.3	8.1	8.1	14.4	10.6
20181226	5.8%	1.7	3.2	4.7	10.1	10.1	12.4	11.7
20170811	5.6%	-1.5	-2.5	.3	.7	4.7	6.2	6.3
20190104	5.6%	2.1	6.2	6.5	9.1	6.9	16.2	15.9
20161028	5.2%	-.0	-2.5	-.9	1.5	5.1	5.6	6.2
20200310	5.2%	-.8	-7.5	-10.2	-10.3	-.5	-6.6	-2.2
20200406	5.2%	-1.6	4.1	3.3	4.2	2.6	3.4	1.7
20170127	-5%	-.9	1.8	2.7	5.1	6.4	7.2	9.1
20201028	-5%	-2.0	3.1	1.9	13.8	14.8	18.2	17.7
20200306	-5.1%	-12.0	-14.2	-13.0	-25.9	-11.8	-5.0	-13.3
20200513	-5.1%	.4	1.4	1.6	8.7	17.7	16.1	15.8
20160125	-5.3%	3.0	-.8	-1.9	-6.5	-7.8	-3.9	3.3
20190909	-5.4%	-3.0	-2.4	.4	2.0	-.4	-3.6	-3.1
20200421	-5.4%	4.3	4.4	11.2	11.2	9.3	1.7	2.2
20190805	-5.6%	3.7	12.6	8.1	10.4	11.8	10.1	9.4
20160113	-5.7%	-.0	-1.6	1.1	-4.4	-6.0	-4.9	-11.8
20200814	-5.7%	2.0	4.1	6.1	7.6	11.5	3.9	4.1
20170609	-5.8%	-2.8	-6.0	-4.4	-4.0	-4.2	-5.7	-5.3
20181119	-6%	.0	1.7	10.3	13.2	9.1	7.7	7.1
20200401	-6.1%	.1	3.0	8.9	8.1	9.0	7.3	8.2
20150122	-6.4%	1.1	2.4	10.4	18.4	16.8	19.1	21.0
20181029	-6.6%	-1.2	4.2	4.7	-1.4	.8	-6.2	-4.6
20200312	-6.6%	8.6	.5	-11.1	10.9	7.4	.4	7.2
20200501	-7%	4.7	5.0	3.7	-1.3	.2	-.1	10.2
20200227	-7.5%	1.4	5.0	-13.6	-15.7	-14.6	-27.3	-13.3
20170503	-8%	1.8	3.0	2.4	.7	3.7	6.2	7.2
20200316	-8%	1.4	-13.6	2.9	10.8	1.1	4.0	10.0
20200611	-8.5%	1.8	3.2	5.0	5.0	5.9	6.4	6.1
20150814	-10.1%	4.2	1.8	-3.5	.4	-.4	1.1	4.3
20200320	-11%	3.0	28.5	24.5	16.3	24.2	26.7	27.6
20200309	-11.9%	5.3	5.9	-2.0	-13.3	8.1	4.7	-2.2
20200130	-12.8%	-2.7	3.0	6.2	3.6	4.0	.8	-7.2

Table 10a. AZPN average price changes following a 5% up day

Of the 1,547 trading days from 2015 to 2020, there were 21 days in which AZPN was up more than 5%. This table shows the average price changes over the 21 days.

Average Type	Average Price Change
Days after:	1	4	7	10	13	16	19
Avg for Change ≥ 5%	-.4	-.5	-.4	1.6	2.8	3.6	3.2

Table 10b. AZPN average price changes following a 5% down day

Of the 1,547 trading days from 2015 to 2020, there were 25 days in which AZPN was down more than -5%. This table shows the average price changes over the 25 days.

Average Type	Average Price Change
Days after:	1	4	7	10	13	16	19
Avg for Change ≥ -5%	.9	2.2	2.5	2.9	4.7	3.4	4.4

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Also see: VIX price movement study.