Statistics of Price Movements of Caterpillar Inc (CAT)

The price movements of Caterpillar Inc (ticker CAT) are summarized in five ways:

• Table 1. Statistics of daily price changes using the closing prices
• Table 2. Statistics of daily price changes using the closing and opening prices
• Table 3 – 7. Statistics of daily price changes when CAT opened with an increase of 1%, 2%, 3%, 4%, or more than 5%
• Table 8 – 10. Statistics of stock price changes in the 20 days after CAT had a big price move
• Table 11. Statistics of daily price changes in the 20 days after CAT moved 5% with twice the 30-day average volume

The statistics are calculated using CAT's price data across 1,549 trading days from 2015 to 2020.

Table 1. Statistics of CAT one-day price changes

In this table, the one-day price change is calculated using the closing price and the previous day's closing price.

In the past 1,549 trading days, 49.8% of the time (771 days), CAT closed above the previous day's closing price. 46.8% of the time (724 days), it closed below the previous day's closing price. 3.4% of the time (53 days), it did not change.

Also see: VIX price movement study.

CAT Price Change (%)	Number of Days	% of Total Sessions
10 – 11%	1	0.06%
7 – 8%	4	0.26%
6 – 7%	2	0.13%
5 – 6%	11	0.71%
4 – 5%	21	1.36%
3 – 4%	31	2.00%
2 – 3%	115	7.43%
1 – 2%	206	13.31%
0 – 1%	380	24.55%
0%	53	3.42%
0 – -1%	386	24.94%
-1 – -2%	192	12.40%
-2 – -3%	72	4.65%
-3 – -4%	38	2.45%
-4 – -5%	16	1.03%
-5 – -6%	6	0.39%
-6 – -7%	5	0.32%
-7 – -8%	4	0.26%
-8 – -9%	3	0.19%
-9 – -10%	1	0.06%
-14 – -15%	1	0.06%

Table 2. Statistics of CAT: Closing vs. Open

In this table, instead of using the closing price of the previous day, the opening price is used to calculate the one-day price change of CAT.

48.8% of the time (756 days), CAT closed above the opening price. 47.6% of the time (738 days), it closed below the opening price. 3.6% of the time (55 days), it closed where it started.

Closing - Open (%)	Number of Days	% of Total Sessions
6 – 7%	1	0.06%
5 – 6%	6	0.39%
4 – 5%	13	0.84%
3 – 4%	29	1.87%
2 – 3%	60	3.87%
1 – 2%	198	12.78%
0 – 1%	449	28.99%
0%	55	3.55%
0 – -1%	443	28.60%
-1 – -2%	205	13.23%
-2 – -3%	59	3.81%
-3 – -4%	19	1.23%
-4 – -5%	6	0.39%
-5 – -6%	1	0.06%
-6 – -7%	2	0.13%
-7 – -8%	2	0.13%
-9 – -10%	1	0.06%

Table 3. One-day performance when CAT opened 5% higher than previous close

In the past 1,549 trading days, CAT opened more than 5% higher than the previous day's closing price 8 times. Of these days, 37.5% (3 days) had closing prices above the opening price, and 62.5% (5 days) had closing prices below the opening price.

Closing - Open (%)	Number of Days	% of Total Sessions
1 – 2%	3	37.50%
0 – -1%	1	12.50%
-1 – -2%	4	50.00%

Table 4. Closing vs. open when CAT opened 4–5% higher

On 5 days, CAT opened 4–5% higher than the previous day's closing price. Of these days, 60.0% (3 days) had closing prices above the opening price, and 40.0% (2 days) had closing prices below the opening price.

Closing - Open (%)	Number of Days	% of Total Sessions
5 – 6%	1	20.00%
1 – 2%	1	20.00%
0 – 1%	1	20.00%
-1 – -2%	1	20.00%
-2 – -3%	1	20.00%

Table 5. Closing vs. open when CAT open 3 – 4% higher

6 times CAT opened 3 – 4% higher than the previous day's closing price. Among these days, 50.0% (3 days) closed above the opening price, 50.0% (3 days) closed below the opening price.

Closing - Open (%)	Number of Days	% of Total Sessions
2 – 3%	1	16.67%
1 – 2%	2	33.33%
-3 – -4%	1	16.67%
-4 – -5%	1	16.67%
-9 – -10%	1	16.67%

Table 6. Closing vs. open when CAT open 2 – 3% higher

24 times CAT opened 2 – 3% higher than the previous day's closing price. Among these days, 33.3% (8 days) closed above the opening price, 66.7% (16 days) closed below the opening price.

Closing - Open (%)	Number of Days	% of Total Sessions
4 – 5%	1	4.17%
3 – 4%	1	4.17%
2 – 3%	1	4.17%
0 – 1%	5	20.83%
0 – -1%	6	25.00%
-1 – -2%	5	20.83%
-2 – -3%	4	16.67%
-4 – -5%	1	4.17%

Table 7. Closing vs. open when CAT open 1 – 2% higher

139 times CAT opened 1 – 2% higher than the previous day's closing price. Among these days, 57.6% (80 days) closed above the opening price, 42.4% (59 days) closed below the opening price.

Closing - Open (%)	Number of Days	% of Total Sessions
3 – 4%	4	2.88%
2 – 3%	8	5.76%
1 – 2%	27	19.42%
0 – 1%	41	29.50%
0 – -1%	36	25.90%
-1 – -2%	17	12.23%
-2 – -3%	5	3.60%
-3 – -4%	1	0.72%

Table 8. Periods when CAT moved 15% or more

In this table, we track the price movements in the 20 days after CAT had a one-day price change of at least 15%.

Date	Price Change	Price Change after 15% Move
Days after:		1	4	7	10	13	16	19

Table 9. Periods when CAT moved 10% or more

In this table, we track the price movements in the 20 days after CAT had a one-day price change of at least 10%.

Date	Price Change	Price Change after 10% Move
Days after:		1	4	7	10	13	16	19
20200324	10.3%	3.3	10.2	15.2	20.3	23.4	10.1	13.1
20200309	-14.2%	2.3	-4.3	-3.8	-11.7	6.2	11.5	10.2

Table 9a. CAT average price changes following a 10% up day

Of the 1,549 trading days from 2015 to 2020, there were 1 days in which CAT was up more than 10%. This table shows the average price changes over the 1 days.

Average Type	Average Price Change
Days after:	1	4	7	10	13	16	19
Avg for Change ≥ 10%	3.3	10.2	15.2	20.3	23.4	10.1	13.1

Table 9b. CAT average price changes following a 10% down day

Of the 1,549 trading days from 2015 to 2020, there were 1 days in which CAT was down more than -10%. This table shows the average price changes over the 1 days.

Average Type	Average Price Change
Days after:	1	4	7	10	13	16	19
Avg for Change ≥ -10%	2.3	-4.3	-3.8	-11.7	6.2	11.5	10.2

Table 10. Periods when CAT moved 5% or more

In this table, we track the price movements in the 20 days after CAT had a one-day price change of at least 5%.

Date	Price Change	Price Change after 5% Move
Days after:		1	4	7	10	13	16	19
20200324	10.3%	3.3	10.2	15.2	20.3	23.4	10.1	13.1
20200313	7.9%	-6.3	3.4	1.7	5.8	11.8	20.9	25.5
20170425	7.8%	.2	-2.3	-4.8	-4.9	-3.6	-4.1	-2.0
20161109	7.6%	2.5	3.6	1.3	5.5	4.1	5.5	4.4
20200317	7.2%	-.1	-8.3	10.3	15.8	14.4	27.1	13.9
20181226	6.6%	1.5	1.9	2.7	4.4	5.6	7.8	6.0
20200518	6.5%	-2.6	-2.2	6.4	4.8	12.1	16.7	7.1
20200330	5.9%	3.9	2.6	14.0	2.2	1.4	-1.7	2.1
20201109	5.9%	.9	.5	1.1	2.3	2.2	1.4	6.7
20170725	5.8%	-.9	-.5	-.9	-.1	-1.5	-.4	-.8
20200326	5.5%	-4.6	.8	9.0	13.1	5.4	5.2	.1
20190104	5.4%	.1	3.8	2.0	6.6	2.9	-2.9	3.9
20151005	5.2%	2.4	3.1	2.2	.1	2.5	1.7	5.5
20200616	5.2%	-1.4	-3.3	-4.2	-2.8	-.5	-3.4	5.2
20200810	5.2%	.4	-1.5	-2.8	-.2	1.0	2.8	4.3
20160726	5.1%	1.6	-1.0	-1.2	.1	.3	2.0	1.0
20200406	5%	1.2	3.8	-7.4	-4.8	-6.2	-4.1	-7.9
20201105	5%	-1.1	3.9	6.2	6.0	8.5	7.4	6.6
20160125	-5%	2.2	7.5	9.3	11.5	6.0	12.6	13.0
20150105	-5.2%	-.6	.7	-1.1	-3.6	-.2	-8.3	-8.1
20180208	-5.4%	2.2	8.3	7.1	8.8	10.5	.3	3.8
20200311	-5.4%	-8.4	-.5	-5.2	4.0	10.9	15.9	21.1
20181024	-5.5%	2.9	4.6	12.0	20.3	11.3	15.2	8.8
20180322	-5.7%	-1.8	-1.2	-2.0	.8	.8	2.3	6.2
20150924	-6.2%	-1.2	-.7	5.1	9.2	6.6	5.9	5.9
20180424	-6.2%	.5	-.1	-.5	3.8	7.2	6.5	10.0
20200316	-6.2%	7.3	2.2	12.1	19.6	25.0	30.5	33.9
20160624	-6.6%	-2.3	3.8	1.8	5.9	9.1	9.3	9.6
20181204	-6.9%	.0	-4.6	-2.6	-3.9	-7.2	-3.5	-1.7
20150127	-7.1%	.2	1.2	4.7	5.1	6.6	6.2	4.6
20200320	-7.2%	-3.8	15.7	21.5	20.1	33.4	19.5	18.6
20201104	-7.4%	5.1	11.0	10.6	11.3	12.6	12.5	11.6
20181023	-7.5%	-5.6	-4.2	4.8	8.7	6.7	5.1	5.9
20200611	-8.2%	1.3	5.5	3.5	2.6	4.1	6.5	3.4
20200312	-8.3%	8.0	8.5	-.4	19.8	25.8	24.3	38.1
20200413	-8.7%	2.1	1.9	-3.1	.9	2.0	-4.6	-1.8
20190128	-9.1%	1.7	5.3	5.0	3.7	6.6	9.2	11.5
20200309	-14.2%	2.3	-4.3	-3.8	-11.7	6.2	11.5	10.2

Table 10a. CAT average price changes following a 5% up day

Of the 1,549 trading days from 2015 to 2020, there were 18 days in which CAT was up more than 5%. This table shows the average price changes over the 18 days.

Average Type	Average Price Change
Days after:	1	4	7	10	13	16	19
Avg for Change ≥ 5%	.1	1.0	2.8	4.1	4.6	5.1	5.3

Table 10b. CAT average price changes following a 5% down day

Of the 1,549 trading days from 2015 to 2020, there were 20 days in which CAT was down more than -5%. This table shows the average price changes over the 20 days.

Average Type	Average Price Change
Days after:	1	4	7	10	13	16	19
Avg for Change ≥ -5%	.6	3.0	3.9	6.8	9.2	8.8	10.2

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Also see: VIX price movement study.