健康指标与评估研究所(IHME)是位于华盛顿大学的全球健康研究中心 [1]。 该研究所建立的新冠肺炎(COVID-19)预报模型被美国政府所引用并被各地方政府用于预测疫情发展对当地医疗机构的负荷压力 [2],[3]。 本文用该研究所发布的数据来图示美国及各州新冠肺炎死亡人数及预测。 预测仅限于到八月为止的第一波新冠肺炎流行期。
| 日期 | 单日死亡人数 | 累计死亡人数 | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020-03-04 | 1 | 1 | ||
| 2020-03-05 | 0 | 1 | ||
| 2020-03-06 | 0 | 1 | ||
| 2020-03-07 | 0 | 1 | ||
| 2020-03-08 | 0 | 1 | ||
| 2020-03-09 | 0 | 1 | ||
| 2020-03-10 | 1 | 2 | ||
| 2020-03-11 | 1 | 3 | ||
| 2020-03-12 | 1 | 4 | ||
| 2020-03-13 | 0 | 4 | ||
| 2020-03-14 | 1 | 5 | ||
| 2020-03-15 | 1 | 6 | ||
| 2020-03-16 | 1 | 7 | ||
| 2020-03-17 | 5 | 12 | ||
| 2020-03-18 | 1 | 13 | ||
| 2020-03-19 | 5 | 18 | ||
| 2020-03-20 | 5 | 23 | ||
| 2020-03-21 | 1 | 24 | ||
| 2020-03-22 | 6 | 30 | ||
| 2020-03-23 | 9 | 39 | ||
| 2020-03-24 | 11 | 50 | ||
| 2020-03-25 | 15 | 65 | ||
| 2020-03-26 | 16 | 81 | ||
| 2020-03-27 | 13 | 94 | ||
| 2020-03-28 | 16 | 110 | ||
| 2020-03-29 | 14 | 124 | ||
| 2020-03-30 | 22 | 146 | ||
| 2020-03-31 | 27 | 173 | ||
| 2020-04-01 | 26 | 199 | ||
| 2020-04-02 | 39 | 238 | ||
| 2020-04-03 | 27 | 265 | ||
| 2020-04-04 | 46 | 311 | ||
| 2020-04-05 | 42 | 353 | ||
| 2020-04-06 | 43 | 396 | ||
| 2020-04-07 | 48 | 444 | ||
| 2020-04-08 | 51 | 495 | ||
| 2020-04-09 | 52 | 546 | ||
| 2020-04-10 | 58 | 604 | ||
| 2020-04-11 | 55 | 660 | ||
| 2020-04-12 | 58 | 718 | ||
| 2020-04-13 | 63 | 781 | ||
| 2020-04-14 | 63 | 843 | ||
| 2020-04-15 | 67 | 911 | ||
| 2020-04-16 | 62 | 973 | ||
| 2020-04-17 | 70 | 1043 | ||
| 2020-04-18 | 61 | 1103 | ||
| 2020-04-19 | 60 | 1164 | ||
| 2020-04-20 | 60 | 1223 | ||
| 2020-04-21 | 55 | 1278 | ||
| 2020-04-22 | 52 | 1331 | ||
| 2020-04-23 | 50 | 1381 | ||
| 2020-04-24 | 46 | 1427 | ||
| 2020-04-25 | 43 | 1470 | ||
| 2020-04-26 | 39 | 1509 | ||
| 2020-04-27 | 37 | 1545 | ||
| 2020-04-28 | 33 | 1579 | ||
| 2020-04-29 | 30 | 1609 | ||
| 2020-04-30 | 26 | 1634 | ||
| 2020-05-01 | 23 | 1657 | ||
| 2020-05-02 | 20 | 1677 | ||
| 2020-05-03 | 17 | 1694 | ||
| 2020-05-04 | 15 | 1710 | ||
| 2020-05-05 | 13 | 1722 | ||
| 2020-05-06 | 11 | 1734 | ||
| 2020-05-07 | 9 | 1743 | ||
| 2020-05-08 | 8 | 1751 | ||
| 2020-05-09 | 7 | 1758 | ||
| 2020-05-10 | 5 | 1763 | ||
| 2020-05-11 | 4 | 1767 | ||
| 2020-05-12 | 4 | 1771 | ||
| 2020-05-13 | 3 | 1774 | ||
| 2020-05-14 | 2 | 1776 | ||
| 2020-05-15 | 2 | 1778 | ||
| 2020-05-16 | 1 | 1780 | ||
| 2020-05-17 | 1 | 1781 | ||
| 2020-05-18 | 1 | 1782 | ||
| 2020-05-19 | 1 | 1782 | ||
| 2020-05-20 | 0 | 1783 | ||
| 2020-05-21 | 0 | 1783 | ||
| 2020-05-22 | 0 | 1783 | ||
| 2020-05-23 | 0 | 1783 | ||
| 2020-05-24 | 0 | 1783 | ||
| 2020-05-25 | 0 | 1783 | ||
| 2020-05-26 | 0 | 1783 | ||
| 2020-05-27 | 0 | 1783 | ||
| 2020-05-28 | 0 | 1783 | ||
| 2020-05-29 | 0 | 1783 | ||
| 2020-05-30 | 0 | 1783 | ||
| 2020-05-31 | 0 | 1783 | ||
| 2020-06-01 | 0 | 1783 | ||
| 2020-06-02 | 0 | 1783 | ||
| 2020-06-03 | 0 | 1783 | ||
| 2020-06-04 | 0 | 1783 | ||
| 2020-06-05 | 0 | 1783 | ||
| 2020-06-06 | 0 | 1783 | ||
| 2020-06-07 | 0 | 1783 | ||
| 2020-06-08 | 0 | 1783 | ||
| 2020-06-09 | 0 | 1783 | ||
| 2020-06-10 | 0 | 1783 | ||
| 2020-06-11 | 0 | 1783 | ||
| 2020-06-12 | 0 | 1783 | ||
| 2020-06-13 | 0 | 1783 | ||
| 2020-06-14 | 0 | 1783 | ||
| 2020-06-15 | 0 | 1783 | ||
| 2020-06-16 | 0 | 1783 | ||
| 2020-06-17 | 0 | 1783 | ||
| 2020-06-18 | 0 | 1783 | ||
| 2020-06-19 | 0 | 1783 | ||
| 2020-06-20 | 0 | 1783 | ||
| 2020-06-21 | 0 | 1783 | ||
| 2020-06-22 | 0 | 1783 | ||
| 2020-06-23 | 0 | 1783 | ||
| 2020-06-24 | 0 | 1783 | ||
| 2020-06-25 | 0 | 1783 | ||
| 2020-06-26 | 0 | 1783 | ||
| 2020-06-27 | 0 | 1783 | ||
| 2020-06-28 | 0 | 1783 | ||
| 2020-06-29 | 0 | 1783 | ||
| 2020-06-30 | 0 | 1783 | ||
| 2020-07-01 | 0 | 1783 | ||
| 2020-07-02 | 0 | 1783 | ||
| 2020-07-03 | 0 | 1783 | ||
| 2020-07-04 | 0 | 1783 | ||
| 2020-07-05 | 0 | 1783 | ||
| 2020-07-06 | 0 | 1783 | ||
| 2020-07-07 | 0 | 1783 | ||
| 2020-07-08 | 0 | 1783 | ||
| 2020-07-09 | 0 | 1783 | ||
| 2020-07-10 | 0 | 1783 | ||
| 2020-07-11 | 0 | 1783 | ||
| 2020-07-12 | 0 | 1783 | ||
| 2020-07-13 | 0 | 1783 | ||
| 2020-07-14 | 0 | 1783 | ||
| 2020-07-15 | 0 | 1783 | ||
| 2020-07-16 | 0 | 1783 | ||
| 2020-07-17 | 0 | 1783 | ||
| 2020-07-18 | 0 | 1783 | ||
| 2020-07-19 | 0 | 1783 | ||
| 2020-07-20 | 0 | 1783 | ||
| 2020-07-21 | 0 | 1783 | ||
| 2020-07-22 | 0 | 1783 | ||
| 2020-07-23 | 0 | 1783 | ||
| 2020-07-24 | 0 | 1783 | ||
| 2020-07-25 | 0 | 1783 | ||
| 2020-07-26 | 0 | 1783 | ||
| 2020-07-27 | 0 | 1783 | ||
| 2020-07-28 | 0 | 1783 | ||
| 2020-07-29 | 0 | 1783 | ||
| 2020-07-30 | 0 | 1783 | ||
| 2020-07-31 | 0 | 1783 | ||
| 2020-08-01 | 0 | 1783 | ||
| 2020-08-02 | 0 | 1783 | ||
| 2020-08-03 | 0 | 1783 | ||
| 2020-08-04 | 0 | 1783 | ||
| 数据来源: 2020年4月5日数据发布 | ||||
[1] IHME
[2] 新冠肺炎预报