COVID-19 deaths and projections in Arizona

The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) is an independent global health research center at the University of Washington [1].

The COVID-19 forecast model developed by the institute was cited by the US government and has been used by local governments to predict the load pressure on the local medical institutions caused by the epidemic [2]，[3]. This article uses the data released by the Institute to illustrate the projected COVID-19 deaths in the United. Predictions are limited to the first wave of the pandemic up to August.

    Daily deaths;     Projected Daily deaths;     Total deaths;     Projected Total deaths

Date	Daily deaths		Total deaths
2020-03-21	1		1
2020-03-22	1		2
2020-03-23	0		2
2020-03-24	3		5
2020-03-25	1		6
2020-03-26	2		8
2020-03-27	5		13
2020-03-28	2		15
2020-03-29	2		17
2020-03-30	3		20
2020-03-31	4		24
2020-04-01	5		29
2020-04-02	3		32
2020-04-03	9		41
2020-04-04	6		47
2020-04-05	7		54
2020-04-06	8		62
2020-04-07	8		70
2020-04-08	9		80
2020-04-09	10		90
2020-04-10	11		101
2020-04-11	11		112
2020-04-12	12		124
2020-04-13	13		138
2020-04-14	14		151
2020-04-15	14		165
2020-04-16	15		180
2020-04-17	15		195
2020-04-18	16		211
2020-04-19	16		227
2020-04-20	16		244
2020-04-21	17		260
2020-04-22	17		277
2020-04-23	17		295
2020-04-24	17		312
2020-04-25	17		329
2020-04-26	17		345
2020-04-27	17		362
2020-04-28	17		379
2020-04-29	16		395
2020-04-30	16		411
2020-05-01	15		426
2020-05-02	14		440
2020-05-03	13		453
2020-05-04	12		465
2020-05-05	12		477
2020-05-06	11		487
2020-05-07	10		497
2020-05-08	9		506
2020-05-09	8		514
2020-05-10	7		521
2020-05-11	7		528
2020-05-12	6		534
2020-05-13	5		539
2020-05-14	5		543
2020-05-15	4		547
2020-05-16	4		551
2020-05-17	3		554
2020-05-18	3		557
2020-05-19	2		559
2020-05-20	2		561
2020-05-21	2		563
2020-05-22	1		564
2020-05-23	1		565
2020-05-24	1		566
2020-05-25	1		567
2020-05-26	1		568
2020-05-27	1		569
2020-05-28	0		569
2020-05-29	0		569
2020-05-30	0		570
2020-05-31	0		570
2020-06-01	0		570
2020-06-02	0		570
2020-06-03	0		570
2020-06-04	0		570
2020-06-05	0		570
2020-06-06	0		570
2020-06-07	0		570
2020-06-08	0		570
2020-06-09	0		570
2020-06-10	0		570
2020-06-11	0		570
2020-06-12	0		570
2020-06-13	0		570
2020-06-14	0		570
2020-06-15	0		570
2020-06-16	0		570
2020-06-17	0		570
2020-06-18	0		570
2020-06-19	0		570
2020-06-20	0		570
2020-06-21	0		570
2020-06-22	0		570
2020-06-23	0		570
2020-06-24	0		570
2020-06-25	0		570
2020-06-26	0		570
2020-06-27	0		570
2020-06-28	0		570
2020-06-29	0		570
2020-06-30	0		570
2020-07-01	0		570
2020-07-02	0		570
2020-07-03	0		570
2020-07-04	0		570
2020-07-05	0		570
2020-07-06	0		570
2020-07-07	0		570
2020-07-08	0		570
2020-07-09	0		570
2020-07-10	0		570
2020-07-11	0		570
2020-07-12	0		570
2020-07-13	0		570
2020-07-14	0		570
2020-07-15	0		570
2020-07-16	0		570
2020-07-17	0		570
2020-07-18	0		570
2020-07-19	0		570
2020-07-20	0		570
2020-07-21	0		570
2020-07-22	0		570
2020-07-23	0		570
2020-07-24	0		570
2020-07-25	0		570
2020-07-26	0		570
2020-07-27	0		570
2020-07-28	0		570
2020-07-29	0		570
2020-07-30	0		570
2020-07-31	0		570
2020-08-01	0		570
2020-08-02	0		570
2020-08-03	0		570
2020-08-04	0		570
Data source: Data release April 5, 2020.

Reference

[1] IHME

[2] COVID-19 projections

[3] Model cited by White House says 82,000 people could die from coronavirus by August, even with social distancing

Risk of COVID-19 to people of different ages