COVID-19 deaths and projections in Illinois

The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) is an independent global health research center at the University of Washington [1].

The COVID-19 forecast model developed by the institute was cited by the US government and has been used by local governments to predict the load pressure on the local medical institutions caused by the epidemic [2]，[3]. This article uses the data released by the Institute to illustrate the projected COVID-19 deaths in the United. Predictions are limited to the first wave of the pandemic up to August.

    Daily deaths;     Projected Daily deaths;     Total deaths;     Projected Total deaths

Date	Daily deaths		Total deaths
2020-03-17	1		1
2020-03-18	0		1
2020-03-19	3		4
2020-03-20	1		5
2020-03-21	1		6
2020-03-22	3		9
2020-03-23	3		12
2020-03-24	4		16
2020-03-25	3		19
2020-03-26	7		26
2020-03-27	8		34
2020-03-28	13		47
2020-03-29	19		66
2020-03-30	7		73
2020-03-31	26		99
2020-04-01	42		141
2020-04-02	22		163
2020-04-03	47		210
2020-04-04	64		274
2020-04-05	66		340
2020-04-06	82		422
2020-04-07	94		516
2020-04-08	119		635
2020-04-09	130		765
2020-04-10	137		902
2020-04-11	156		1,058
2020-04-12	208		1,266
2020-04-13	157		1,423
2020-04-14	190		1,613
2020-04-15	177		1,790
2020-04-16	171		1,961
2020-04-17	175		2,135
2020-04-18	196		2,331
2020-04-19	196		2,527
2020-04-20	196		2,723
2020-04-21	185		2,907
2020-04-22	162		3,069
2020-04-23	145		3,214
2020-04-24	125		3,339
2020-04-25	105		3,444
2020-04-26	80		3,524
2020-04-27	55		3,579
2020-04-28	30		3,609
2020-04-29	5		3,615
2020-04-30	4		3,619
2020-05-01	3		3,622
2020-05-02	2		3,624
2020-05-03	2		3,626
2020-05-04	1		3,627
2020-05-05	1		3,628
2020-05-06	0		3,628
2020-05-07	0		3,628
2020-05-08	0		3,628
2020-05-09	0		3,629
2020-05-10	0		3,629
2020-05-11	0		3,629
2020-05-12	0		3,629
2020-05-13	0		3,629
2020-05-14	0		3,629
2020-05-15	0		3,629
2020-05-16	0		3,629
2020-05-17	0		3,629
2020-05-18	0		3,629
2020-05-19	0		3,629
2020-05-20	0		3,629
2020-05-21	0		3,629
2020-05-22	0		3,629
2020-05-23	0		3,629
2020-05-24	0		3,629
2020-05-25	0		3,629
2020-05-26	0		3,629
2020-05-27	0		3,629
2020-05-28	0		3,629
2020-05-29	0		3,629
2020-05-30	0		3,629
2020-05-31	0		3,629
2020-06-01	0		3,629
2020-06-02	0		3,629
2020-06-03	0		3,629
2020-06-04	0		3,629
2020-06-05	0		3,629
2020-06-06	0		3,629
2020-06-07	0		3,629
2020-06-08	0		3,629
2020-06-09	0		3,629
2020-06-10	0		3,629
2020-06-11	0		3,629
2020-06-12	0		3,629
2020-06-13	0		3,629
2020-06-14	0		3,629
2020-06-15	0		3,629
2020-06-16	0		3,629
2020-06-17	0		3,629
2020-06-18	0		3,629
2020-06-19	0		3,629
2020-06-20	0		3,629
2020-06-21	0		3,629
2020-06-22	0		3,629
2020-06-23	0		3,629
2020-06-24	0		3,629
2020-06-25	0		3,629
2020-06-26	0		3,629
2020-06-27	0		3,629
2020-06-28	0		3,629
2020-06-29	0		3,629
2020-06-30	0		3,629
2020-07-01	0		3,629
2020-07-02	0		3,629
2020-07-03	0		3,629
2020-07-04	0		3,629
2020-07-05	0		3,629
2020-07-06	0		3,629
2020-07-07	0		3,629
2020-07-08	0		3,629
2020-07-09	0		3,629
2020-07-10	0		3,629
2020-07-11	0		3,629
2020-07-12	0		3,629
2020-07-13	0		3,629
2020-07-14	0		3,629
2020-07-15	0		3,629
2020-07-16	0		3,629
2020-07-17	0		3,629
2020-07-18	0		3,629
2020-07-19	0		3,629
2020-07-20	0		3,629
2020-07-21	0		3,629
2020-07-22	0		3,629
2020-07-23	0		3,629
2020-07-24	0		3,629
2020-07-25	0		3,629
2020-07-26	0		3,629
2020-07-27	0		3,629
2020-07-28	0		3,629
2020-07-29	0		3,629
2020-07-30	0		3,629
2020-07-31	0		3,629
2020-08-01	0		3,629
2020-08-02	0		3,629
2020-08-03	0		3,629
2020-08-04	0		3,629
Data source: Data release April 5, 2020.

Reference

[1] IHME

[2] COVID-19 projections

[3] Model cited by White House says 82,000 people could die from coronavirus by August, even with social distancing

Risk of COVID-19 to people of different ages