COVID-19 deaths and projections in Virginia

The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) is an independent global health research center at the University of Washington [1].

The COVID-19 forecast model developed by the institute was cited by the US government and has been used by local governments to predict the load pressure on the local medical institutions caused by the epidemic [2]，[3]. This article uses the data released by the Institute to illustrate the projected COVID-19 deaths in the United. Predictions are limited to the first wave of the pandemic up to August.

    Daily deaths;     Projected Daily deaths;     Total deaths;     Projected Total deaths

Date	Daily deaths		Total deaths
2020-03-14	1		1
2020-03-15	0		1
2020-03-16	0		1
2020-03-17	1		2
2020-03-18	0		2
2020-03-19	0		2
2020-03-20	0		2
2020-03-21	0		2
2020-03-22	4		6
2020-03-23	0		6
2020-03-24	3		9
2020-03-25	0		9
2020-03-26	1		10
2020-03-27	0		10
2020-03-28	3		13
2020-03-29	7		20
2020-03-30	0		20
2020-03-31	12		32
2020-04-01	7		39
2020-04-02	7		46
2020-04-03	5		51
2020-04-04	17		68
2020-04-05	13		81
2020-04-06	16		97
2020-04-07	18		115
2020-04-08	21		135
2020-04-09	23		159
2020-04-10	27		186
2020-04-11	30		216
2020-04-12	33		249
2020-04-13	38		287
2020-04-14	42		329
2020-04-15	44		373
2020-04-16	45		418
2020-04-17	50		467
2020-04-18	51		518
2020-04-19	54		572
2020-04-20	58		630
2020-04-21	57		687
2020-04-22	59		746
2020-04-23	57		803
2020-04-24	55		858
2020-04-25	51		909
2020-04-26	45		954
2020-04-27	42		996
2020-04-28	35		1,031
2020-04-29	27		1,059
2020-04-30	25		1,084
2020-05-01	25		1,109
2020-05-02	25		1,133
2020-05-03	22		1,155
2020-05-04	22		1,177
2020-05-05	20		1,197
2020-05-06	19		1,216
2020-05-07	18		1,234
2020-05-08	17		1,251
2020-05-09	16		1,266
2020-05-10	14		1,281
2020-05-11	14		1,295
2020-05-12	12		1,307
2020-05-13	11		1,318
2020-05-14	10		1,329
2020-05-15	9		1,338
2020-05-16	8		1,346
2020-05-17	8		1,354
2020-05-18	7		1,360
2020-05-19	6		1,366
2020-05-20	5		1,372
2020-05-21	4		1,376
2020-05-22	4		1,380
2020-05-23	3		1,384
2020-05-24	3		1,387
2020-05-25	3		1,389
2020-05-26	2		1,391
2020-05-27	2		1,393
2020-05-28	2		1,395
2020-05-29	1		1,396
2020-05-30	1		1,397
2020-05-31	1		1,398
2020-06-01	1		1,399
2020-06-02	1		1,399
2020-06-03	1		1,400
2020-06-04	0		1,400
2020-06-05	0		1,401
2020-06-06	0		1,401
2020-06-07	0		1,401
2020-06-08	0		1,401
2020-06-09	0		1,401
2020-06-10	0		1,401
2020-06-11	0		1,401
2020-06-12	0		1,401
2020-06-13	0		1,401
2020-06-14	0		1,401
2020-06-15	0		1,401
2020-06-16	0		1,401
2020-06-17	0		1,401
2020-06-18	0		1,401
2020-06-19	0		1,401
2020-06-20	0		1,401
2020-06-21	0		1,401
2020-06-22	0		1,401
2020-06-23	0		1,401
2020-06-24	0		1,401
2020-06-25	0		1,401
2020-06-26	0		1,401
2020-06-27	0		1,401
2020-06-28	0		1,401
2020-06-29	0		1,401
2020-06-30	0		1,401
2020-07-01	0		1,401
2020-07-02	0		1,401
2020-07-03	0		1,401
2020-07-04	0		1,401
2020-07-05	0		1,401
2020-07-06	0		1,401
2020-07-07	0		1,401
2020-07-08	0		1,401
2020-07-09	0		1,401
2020-07-10	0		1,401
2020-07-11	0		1,401
2020-07-12	0		1,401
2020-07-13	0		1,401
2020-07-14	0		1,401
2020-07-15	0		1,401
2020-07-16	0		1,401
2020-07-17	0		1,401
2020-07-18	0		1,401
2020-07-19	0		1,401
2020-07-20	0		1,401
2020-07-21	0		1,401
2020-07-22	0		1,401
2020-07-23	0		1,401
2020-07-24	0		1,401
2020-07-25	0		1,401
2020-07-26	0		1,401
2020-07-27	0		1,401
2020-07-28	0		1,401
2020-07-29	0		1,401
2020-07-30	0		1,401
2020-07-31	0		1,401
2020-08-01	0		1,401
2020-08-02	0		1,401
2020-08-03	0		1,401
2020-08-04	0		1,401
Data source: Data release April 5, 2020.

Reference

[1] IHME

[2] COVID-19 projections

[3] Model cited by White House says 82,000 people could die from coronavirus by August, even with social distancing

Risk of COVID-19 to people of different ages