COVID-19 deaths and projections in California

The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) is an independent global health research center at the University of Washington [1].

The COVID-19 forecast model developed by the institute was cited by the US government and has been used by local governments to predict the load pressure on the local medical institutions caused by the epidemic [2]，[3]. This article uses the data released by the Institute to illustrate the projected COVID-19 deaths in the United. Predictions are limited to the first wave of the pandemic up to August.

    Daily deaths;     Projected Daily deaths;     Total deaths;     Projected Total deaths

Date	Daily deaths		Total deaths
2020-03-04	1		1
2020-03-05	0		1
2020-03-06	0		1
2020-03-07	0		1
2020-03-08	0		1
2020-03-09	0		1
2020-03-10	1		2
2020-03-11	1		3
2020-03-12	1		4
2020-03-13	0		4
2020-03-14	1		5
2020-03-15	1		6
2020-03-16	1		7
2020-03-17	5		12
2020-03-18	1		13
2020-03-19	5		18
2020-03-20	5		23
2020-03-21	1		24
2020-03-22	6		30
2020-03-23	9		39
2020-03-24	11		50
2020-03-25	15		65
2020-03-26	16		81
2020-03-27	13		94
2020-03-28	16		110
2020-03-29	14		124
2020-03-30	22		146
2020-03-31	27		173
2020-04-01	26		199
2020-04-02	39		238
2020-04-03	27		265
2020-04-04	46		311
2020-04-05	42		353
2020-04-06	43		396
2020-04-07	48		444
2020-04-08	51		495
2020-04-09	52		546
2020-04-10	58		604
2020-04-11	55		660
2020-04-12	58		718
2020-04-13	63		781
2020-04-14	63		843
2020-04-15	67		911
2020-04-16	62		973
2020-04-17	70		1,043
2020-04-18	61		1,103
2020-04-19	60		1,164
2020-04-20	60		1,223
2020-04-21	55		1,278
2020-04-22	52		1,331
2020-04-23	50		1,381
2020-04-24	46		1,427
2020-04-25	43		1,470
2020-04-26	39		1,509
2020-04-27	37		1,545
2020-04-28	33		1,579
2020-04-29	30		1,609
2020-04-30	26		1,634
2020-05-01	23		1,657
2020-05-02	20		1,677
2020-05-03	17		1,694
2020-05-04	15		1,710
2020-05-05	13		1,722
2020-05-06	11		1,734
2020-05-07	9		1,743
2020-05-08	8		1,751
2020-05-09	7		1,758
2020-05-10	5		1,763
2020-05-11	4		1,767
2020-05-12	4		1,771
2020-05-13	3		1,774
2020-05-14	2		1,776
2020-05-15	2		1,778
2020-05-16	1		1,780
2020-05-17	1		1,781
2020-05-18	1		1,782
2020-05-19	1		1,782
2020-05-20	0		1,783
2020-05-21	0		1,783
2020-05-22	0		1,783
2020-05-23	0		1,783
2020-05-24	0		1,783
2020-05-25	0		1,783
2020-05-26	0		1,783
2020-05-27	0		1,783
2020-05-28	0		1,783
2020-05-29	0		1,783
2020-05-30	0		1,783
2020-05-31	0		1,783
2020-06-01	0		1,783
2020-06-02	0		1,783
2020-06-03	0		1,783
2020-06-04	0		1,783
2020-06-05	0		1,783
2020-06-06	0		1,783
2020-06-07	0		1,783
2020-06-08	0		1,783
2020-06-09	0		1,783
2020-06-10	0		1,783
2020-06-11	0		1,783
2020-06-12	0		1,783
2020-06-13	0		1,783
2020-06-14	0		1,783
2020-06-15	0		1,783
2020-06-16	0		1,783
2020-06-17	0		1,783
2020-06-18	0		1,783
2020-06-19	0		1,783
2020-06-20	0		1,783
2020-06-21	0		1,783
2020-06-22	0		1,783
2020-06-23	0		1,783
2020-06-24	0		1,783
2020-06-25	0		1,783
2020-06-26	0		1,783
2020-06-27	0		1,783
2020-06-28	0		1,783
2020-06-29	0		1,783
2020-06-30	0		1,783
2020-07-01	0		1,783
2020-07-02	0		1,783
2020-07-03	0		1,783
2020-07-04	0		1,783
2020-07-05	0		1,783
2020-07-06	0		1,783
2020-07-07	0		1,783
2020-07-08	0		1,783
2020-07-09	0		1,783
2020-07-10	0		1,783
2020-07-11	0		1,783
2020-07-12	0		1,783
2020-07-13	0		1,783
2020-07-14	0		1,783
2020-07-15	0		1,783
2020-07-16	0		1,783
2020-07-17	0		1,783
2020-07-18	0		1,783
2020-07-19	0		1,783
2020-07-20	0		1,783
2020-07-21	0		1,783
2020-07-22	0		1,783
2020-07-23	0		1,783
2020-07-24	0		1,783
2020-07-25	0		1,783
2020-07-26	0		1,783
2020-07-27	0		1,783
2020-07-28	0		1,783
2020-07-29	0		1,783
2020-07-30	0		1,783
2020-07-31	0		1,783
2020-08-01	0		1,783
2020-08-02	0		1,783
2020-08-03	0		1,783
2020-08-04	0		1,783
Data source: Data release April 5, 2020.

Reference

[1] IHME

[2] COVID-19 projections

[3] Model cited by White House says 82,000 people could die from coronavirus by August, even with social distancing

Risk of COVID-19 to people of different ages