COVID-19 deaths and projections in Kentucky

The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) is an independent global health research center at the University of Washington [1].

The COVID-19 forecast model developed by the institute was cited by the US government and has been used by local governments to predict the load pressure on the local medical institutions caused by the epidemic [2]，[3]. This article uses the data released by the Institute to illustrate the projected COVID-19 deaths in the United. Predictions are limited to the first wave of the pandemic up to August.

    Daily deaths;     Projected Daily deaths;     Total deaths;     Projected Total deaths

Date	Daily deaths		Total deaths
2020-03-16	1		1
2020-03-17	0		1
2020-03-18	0		1
2020-03-19	1		2
2020-03-20	0		2
2020-03-21	1		3
2020-03-22	0		3
2020-03-23	1		4
2020-03-24	0		4
2020-03-25	1		5
2020-03-26	0		5
2020-03-27	2		7
2020-03-28	2		9
2020-03-29	0		9
2020-03-30	2		11
2020-03-31	0		11
2020-04-01	7		18
2020-04-02	13		31
2020-04-03	3		34
2020-04-04	12		46
2020-04-05	9		55
2020-04-06	11		66
2020-04-07	12		78
2020-04-08	15		93
2020-04-09	17		110
2020-04-10	19		130
2020-04-11	22		152
2020-04-12	26		178
2020-04-13	31		208
2020-04-14	36		244
2020-04-15	33		277
2020-04-16	35		312
2020-04-17	38		350
2020-04-18	42		392
2020-04-19	44		436
2020-04-20	47		482
2020-04-21	51		533
2020-04-22	51		584
2020-04-23	52		637
2020-04-24	54		690
2020-04-25	54		745
2020-04-26	50		795
2020-04-27	45		840
2020-04-28	42		882
2020-04-29	40		922
2020-04-30	40		961
2020-05-01	37		999
2020-05-02	37		1,036
2020-05-03	40		1,075
2020-05-04	35		1,111
2020-05-05	37		1,148
2020-05-06	36		1,183
2020-05-07	36		1,220
2020-05-08	35		1,254
2020-05-09	35		1,289
2020-05-10	33		1,323
2020-05-11	33		1,355
2020-05-12	32		1,387
2020-05-13	31		1,418
2020-05-14	27		1,446
2020-05-15	26		1,472
2020-05-16	26		1,498
2020-05-17	24		1,522
2020-05-18	22		1,544
2020-05-19	20		1,564
2020-05-20	20		1,584
2020-05-21	17		1,601
2020-05-22	15		1,616
2020-05-23	15		1,631
2020-05-24	14		1,645
2020-05-25	12		1,657
2020-05-26	11		1,668
2020-05-27	10		1,678
2020-05-28	9		1,687
2020-05-29	8		1,696
2020-05-30	8		1,703
2020-05-31	6		1,710
2020-06-01	6		1,715
2020-06-02	5		1,720
2020-06-03	4		1,725
2020-06-04	4		1,729
2020-06-05	3		1,732
2020-06-06	3		1,735
2020-06-07	2		1,737
2020-06-08	2		1,739
2020-06-09	2		1,741
2020-06-10	1		1,743
2020-06-11	1		1,744
2020-06-12	1		1,745
2020-06-13	1		1,746
2020-06-14	1		1,747
2020-06-15	1		1,747
2020-06-16	1		1,748
2020-06-17	0		1,748
2020-06-18	0		1,749
2020-06-19	0		1,749
2020-06-20	0		1,749
2020-06-21	0		1,749
2020-06-22	0		1,749
2020-06-23	0		1,750
2020-06-24	0		1,750
2020-06-25	0		1,750
2020-06-26	0		1,750
2020-06-27	0		1,750
2020-06-28	0		1,750
2020-06-29	0		1,750
2020-06-30	0		1,750
2020-07-01	0		1,750
2020-07-02	0		1,750
2020-07-03	0		1,750
2020-07-04	0		1,750
2020-07-05	0		1,750
2020-07-06	0		1,750
2020-07-07	0		1,750
2020-07-08	0		1,750
2020-07-09	0		1,750
2020-07-10	0		1,750
2020-07-11	0		1,750
2020-07-12	0		1,750
2020-07-13	0		1,750
2020-07-14	0		1,750
2020-07-15	0		1,750
2020-07-16	0		1,750
2020-07-17	0		1,750
2020-07-18	0		1,750
2020-07-19	0		1,750
2020-07-20	0		1,750
2020-07-21	0		1,750
2020-07-22	0		1,750
2020-07-23	0		1,750
2020-07-24	0		1,750
2020-07-25	0		1,750
2020-07-26	0		1,750
2020-07-27	0		1,750
2020-07-28	0		1,750
2020-07-29	0		1,750
2020-07-30	0		1,750
2020-07-31	0		1,750
2020-08-01	0		1,750
2020-08-02	0		1,750
2020-08-03	0		1,750
2020-08-04	0		1,750
Data source: Data release April 5, 2020.

Reference

[1] IHME

[2] COVID-19 projections

[3] Model cited by White House says 82,000 people could die from coronavirus by August, even with social distancing

Risk of COVID-19 to people of different ages