COVID-19 deaths and projections in Texas

The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) is an independent global health research center at the University of Washington [1].

The COVID-19 forecast model developed by the institute was cited by the US government and has been used by local governments to predict the load pressure on the local medical institutions caused by the epidemic [2]，[3]. This article uses the data released by the Institute to illustrate the projected COVID-19 deaths in the United. Predictions are limited to the first wave of the pandemic up to August.

    Daily deaths;     Projected Daily deaths;     Total deaths;     Projected Total deaths

Date	Daily deaths		Total deaths
2020-03-17	1		1
2020-03-18	2		3
2020-03-19	2		5
2020-03-20	0		5
2020-03-21	0		5
2020-03-22	2		7
2020-03-23	2		9
2020-03-24	3		12
2020-03-25	3		15
2020-03-26	6		21
2020-03-27	5		26
2020-03-28	4		30
2020-03-29	7		37
2020-03-30	8		45
2020-03-31	9		54
2020-04-01	12		66
2020-04-02	11		77
2020-04-03	23		100
2020-04-04	16		116
2020-04-05	23		140
2020-04-06	25		165
2020-04-07	29		194
2020-04-08	33		227
2020-04-09	37		264
2020-04-10	39		303
2020-04-11	47		350
2020-04-12	46		396
2020-04-13	54		450
2020-04-14	57		507
2020-04-15	59		565
2020-04-16	58		624
2020-04-17	65		688
2020-04-18	70		758
2020-04-19	71		829
2020-04-20	72		901
2020-04-21	70		971
2020-04-22	70		1,041
2020-04-23	70		1,111
2020-04-24	70		1,181
2020-04-25	67		1,249
2020-04-26	64		1,313
2020-04-27	61		1,374
2020-04-28	56		1,430
2020-04-29	51		1,481
2020-04-30	51		1,531
2020-05-01	48		1,579
2020-05-02	44		1,624
2020-05-03	42		1,666
2020-05-04	39		1,705
2020-05-05	37		1,742
2020-05-06	34		1,775
2020-05-07	31		1,806
2020-05-08	28		1,833
2020-05-09	25		1,858
2020-05-10	23		1,881
2020-05-11	20		1,901
2020-05-12	18		1,919
2020-05-13	16		1,935
2020-05-14	13		1,948
2020-05-15	12		1,961
2020-05-16	11		1,971
2020-05-17	9		1,980
2020-05-18	8		1,988
2020-05-19	7		1,995
2020-05-20	6		2,000
2020-05-21	5		2,005
2020-05-22	4		2,009
2020-05-23	3		2,012
2020-05-24	3		2,015
2020-05-25	2		2,017
2020-05-26	2		2,019
2020-05-27	1		2,020
2020-05-28	1		2,021
2020-05-29	1		2,022
2020-05-30	1		2,023
2020-05-31	1		2,023
2020-06-01	0		2,024
2020-06-02	0		2,024
2020-06-03	0		2,024
2020-06-04	0		2,025
2020-06-05	0		2,025
2020-06-06	0		2,025
2020-06-07	0		2,025
2020-06-08	0		2,025
2020-06-09	0		2,025
2020-06-10	0		2,025
2020-06-11	0		2,025
2020-06-12	0		2,025
2020-06-13	0		2,025
2020-06-14	0		2,025
2020-06-15	0		2,025
2020-06-16	0		2,025
2020-06-17	0		2,025
2020-06-18	0		2,025
2020-06-19	0		2,025
2020-06-20	0		2,025
2020-06-21	0		2,025
2020-06-22	0		2,025
2020-06-23	0		2,025
2020-06-24	0		2,025
2020-06-25	0		2,025
2020-06-26	0		2,025
2020-06-27	0		2,025
2020-06-28	0		2,025
2020-06-29	0		2,025
2020-06-30	0		2,025
2020-07-01	0		2,025
2020-07-02	0		2,025
2020-07-03	0		2,025
2020-07-04	0		2,025
2020-07-05	0		2,025
2020-07-06	0		2,025
2020-07-07	0		2,025
2020-07-08	0		2,025
2020-07-09	0		2,025
2020-07-10	0		2,025
2020-07-11	0		2,025
2020-07-12	0		2,025
2020-07-13	0		2,025
2020-07-14	0		2,025
2020-07-15	0		2,025
2020-07-16	0		2,025
2020-07-17	0		2,025
2020-07-18	0		2,025
2020-07-19	0		2,025
2020-07-20	0		2,025
2020-07-21	0		2,025
2020-07-22	0		2,025
2020-07-23	0		2,025
2020-07-24	0		2,025
2020-07-25	0		2,025
2020-07-26	0		2,025
2020-07-27	0		2,025
2020-07-28	0		2,025
2020-07-29	0		2,025
2020-07-30	0		2,025
2020-07-31	0		2,025
2020-08-01	0		2,025
2020-08-02	0		2,025
2020-08-03	0		2,025
2020-08-04	0		2,025
Data source: Data release April 5, 2020.

Reference

[1] IHME

[2] COVID-19 projections

[3] Model cited by White House says 82,000 people could die from coronavirus by August, even with social distancing

Risk of COVID-19 to people of different ages